Kambi CEO Werner Becher has suggested that Brazil’s regulated gambling market has not delivered for the industry as initially expected.

The supplier reported revenue of €37.4m (£32.9m) for the third quarter of 2025, representing a 13.1% decrease year on year (YoY).

Following the results, Kambi lowered its full-year 2025 guidance, with adjusted EBITA of around €17m now expected, down from initial projections of between €20m and €25m.

Management partially attributed the decision to a “slower than anticipated” market in Brazil, which regulated on 1 January 2025.

Concerns have been aired by industry stakeholders over new KYC processes and the continued presence of the black market, meaning projections have not yet been met.

As per data from the Brazilian regulator SPA, GGR in the market hit over £2bn in the first six months of 2025, with more than 17 million players engaging with licensed operator.

Speaking on Kambi’s Q3 earnings call, Becher claimed that an underestimation of the size of Brazil’s black market has led to “disappointment” from industry stakeholders.

He said: “I see the market continuously growing. The overall market size was a little bit overestimated before the regulation started. There’s a little bit of disappointment in the entire industry about the Brazilian market.

“We are not so sure if the market size was oversized and predicted to be a bit bigger than it actually is now. From our perspective, it’s more that the black market is still very big, and the channelisation in Brazil hasn’t worked as expected, so the regulated market grew slower than expected.”

Becher added that any plans to raise gambling taxes would only serve to exacerbate the problem.

Proposals to up the GGR tax rate in Brazil from 12% to 18% were scrapped in October, although legislation to take the levy to 24% has since been tabled.

The CEO continued: “We see efforts from the government and regulatory authorities in Brazil to limit the black market.

“On the other hand, the ongoing discussions in the Brazilian Parliament to further increase taxes definitely will not help to get a higher channelisation rate.”

Elsewhere, when asked about the likelihood of Kambi entering the prediction markets space, Becher said the company would take a cautious approach as they “have a lot to lose”.

“I think we’re in a similar position to the betting and casino operators in the US,” he remarked.

“Being licensed in 60+ jurisdictions globally and more than 20 jurisdictions in the US – we have a lot to lose.

“We have to be very careful and we will never risk our existing licences. We will continue to support our partners in the licensed and legalised betting space in the US, but clearly this is something we’re looking at very closely.

“We don’t see any big impact on the existing licensed markets from predictions markets.

“It looks like its more business for the as of yet unregulated markets like California and Texas, and these prediction markets guys have a first mover advantage there.”

The post Kambi CEO: There’s been “a little bit of disappointment” on Brazil first appeared on EGR Intel.