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The post Chiefs vs. Broncos Predictions and Picks – Harvey Rushing Attempts and Mahomes Yards Props appeared first on SportsHandle.
The Broncos shut out the Chiefs 38-0 in their last meeting, and that result adds major weight to our new Chiefs vs. Broncos Predictions for NFL betting in Week 11. This time, our picks focus on Kansas City to respond strong after the bye, Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards, and RJ Harvey’s workload, giving bettors multiple opportunities to consider when exploring picks, prop bets, and best bets for Kansas City vs. Denver.
| Date | November 16 |
| Expert Prediction | Chiefs to Cover the Spread -3.5 |
| Alternative Expert Pick | Under 44.5 Total Points |
| Player Prop Prediction | RJ Harvey Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts |
| Alternative Prop Bet Pick | Patrick Mahomes Over 218.5 Passing Yards |
| Bet Now | ^^ Bet on FanDuel^^ |
*Sports betting is unpredictable, and none of these ideas are guaranteed to win – they are simply strategic suggestions based on matchup analysis.
Why Our NFL Picks Are Worth Following
Our NFL Picks & Predictions series follows the most interesting NFL games each week. We cover between 4 and 8 matchups per week, depending on the schedule. So far this season, we’ve been correct on 53.60% of our picks, with the win rate improving over the last four weeks. During that stretch, we hit 62.5% of our picks – 35 out of 56, including this week’s TNF where we went 3-for-4.
Chiefs vs. Broncos Week 11 Game Overview
Chiefs seek payback after 38-0 loss Rested KC offense vs elite Denver defense
The Broncos enter Week 11 at 8-2, their best start since 2015, backed by an elite pass-rushing defense ranked 1st in sacks and 6th in Defensive SRS. Quarterback Bo Nix has been sharp, ranking 5th in passing touchdowns and 6th in pass attempts per game.
The Chiefs sit at 5-4 – their worst start since 2021 – but they come into this matchup off a bye week, which historically boosts their performance. Kansas City leads the all-time series 73-57, adding more motivation after losing 38-0 in their last meeting.
Even though practice reports list Isiah Pacheco as DNP, it’s likely tied to workload management rather than injury concern. With Mahomes’ production, their seventh-ranked offense, and Andy Reid’s post-bye dominance, the Chiefs should be positioned for a much stronger outing this time around.
Chiefs to Cover the Spread -3.5
Andy Reid is 22-4 after bye weeks Chiefs offense ranks 7th in YPG
Kansas City is coming off a bye week, which historically matters under Andy Reid – his teams are 22-4 in games after a bye.
Even though the Broncos sit at 8-2 and have leaned on an elite pass rush, this game sets up favorably for the Chiefs. Their offense ranks 7th in yards per game, and Patrick Mahomes remains one of the most productive quarterbacks in the league. The combination of rest, statistical strength, and urgency to bounce back from a difficult season start makes Kansas City a strong candidate to cover the spread.
Under 44.5 Total Points
Broncos defense is 1st in sacks (46) and 6th in Defensive SRS Bo Nix is 6th in pass attempts but only 5th in passing TDs
The Broncos have built their success on controlling the pace of games. Their elite defensive line, ranked 1st in sacks, forces opposing teams into uncomfortable drives while Denver leans on the run to drain the clock.
With both teams likely looking to limit big mistakes in such an important divisional matchup, long possessions and slower pace are expected. Kansas City has an explosive offense, but this Denver defense has kept games within manageable totals all season. The conditions point toward a competitive – but lower-scoring – game.
RJ Harvey Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts
Dobbins and Adkins were DNP on the recent injury report Broncos favor running plays over passing touchdowns despite Bo Nix being 6th in pass attempts
The Broncos want to shorten games, protect their defense, and control time of possession. Their most reliable method of doing that is emphasizing the run game behind RJ Harvey. With both J.K. Dobbins and TE Adkins showing up as DNP on reports, Harvey’s role is likely even more secure.
Given the expected game plan and the importance of keeping Mahomes off the field, Harvey clearing 13.5 rushing attempts is a realistic and logical projection.
Patrick Mahomes Over 218.5 Passing Yards
Mahomes is 5th in passing yards this season Quick throws counter Denver’s pass rush
Mahomes currently ranks 5th in passing yards (2,349), and this matchup should require him to throw with purpose. The Broncos’ elite pass rush may create pressure, but it also forces quarterbacks to get the ball out quickly – usually resulting in steady passing volume instead of stalled drives.
With the Chiefs needing to dictate pace and build momentum early, Mahomes exceeding 218.5 passing yards aligns well with both form and game script projections.
The post Chiefs vs. Broncos Predictions and Picks – Harvey Rushing Attempts and Mahomes Yards Props appeared first on SportsHandle.
